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New Yorkers will learn the identity of their new city leader this Tuesday, in a race that will decide who runs and defends the nation's most populous metropolis at a time when Donald Trump has threatened to deploy military troops to the city.

In this context, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has matched two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against each other. The election has become an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by accusations of racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the young democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has attracted global notice. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the ex- Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the support of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who defeated Cuomo in the party primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a platform of affordability and promised to freeze rent for about two million city residents, has led Cuomo by significant margins across all surveys taken in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's election to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

However, the former governor, who resigned as the state's leader in recent years amid allegations of misconduct, has made it clear he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has criticized Mamdani's goals as unachievable, and in the final stretch laughed as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was widely condemned as bigoted after sharing an artificial intelligence video that included a series of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani freeing a group of criminals.

This represents a rather grubby conclusion to an election that could be key to the path that the party, floundering in its reaction to the former president's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

Should the progressive secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have declined to support his bid will be forced to reckon with a platform that has appealed to voters' frustration at inequality, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of the candidate's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the fresh face has generated an excitement within the Democratic ranks arguably not seen since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House in 2016.

However, if Cuomo, who had been expected to sail to victory in the June primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could cement national Democrats' current model of cautious, uninspiring resistance – a tactic that has angered the party base. A NYC defeat of the progressive's optimistic platform could persuade party leaders that the best plan is to stick to the political center – even as polls show the current iteration of the party is widely disliked across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of the city appear to favor the progressive agenda. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. The candidate's snappy videos on social media, his optimistic vision for the city and his willingness to actually venture out and meet people in the city has attracted an force of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them youth or new participants.

Personal Attacks

However, Cuomo, 67, isn't giving up. And with the risks stacked against him, the ex-leader has resorted to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might stick, Cuomo has concentrated on targeting Mamdani directly. He has called Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and popped up on conservative media for an interview with a rightwing host, where Cuomo claimed New York “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It hit bottom last week, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Political Landscape

This strategy echoes much of what Trump, who has deployed the military reserves to Washington DC and warned to do the same to New York, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of wealthy residents, including some who donated to the Republican in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to get the independent into office, as other influential figures have pressured Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the contest.

Political Histories

As far as the his team, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should never have come to this point. When the assemblyman, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, started his campaign for mayor in last year, few had known him, and in truth, few even noticed.

Cuomo, by comparison, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The classic establishment figure, he had wed a political dynasty member and worked in a Democratic presidency. He became the state's leader in 2011, 17 years after his father, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the same position.

The progressive, who was elected to the state legislature in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – present a brighter outlook of the future than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Still, Mamdani has encountered difficulties in the final phase, after video emerged suggesting him suggesting the New York police department and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your throat, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the recording, recorded at a DSA convention in recent years. The progressive, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, indicated he was questioning cooperative programs between the city police and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, Mamdani appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani addressed Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first ran for state assembly, a family member advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our beliefs.”

Speaking to the behavior of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd